In today's NYT they talk about "standards defections" in an article at:
The article talks about how Microsoft has just defected from Sony's BluRay format to join the Toshiba HD-DVD camp:
"But two unexpected and little-noticed decisions by the Blu-ray group last spring managed to alienate Microsoft and ultimately revive Toshiba's sagging fortunes.
First, Sony and the Blu-ray group adopted a Java program for interactive features. Microsoft favored a rival called iHD because, among other things, it would work better with its new Vista operating system. The Blu-ray group's board also approved an encryption technology called BD+, which Mr. Majidimehr, Microsoft's vice president for Windows digital media, deemed superfluous."
Their defection has in turn caused a shift in the loyalties of the smaller players who don't want to pay Sony's software fees (apparently much higher than HD-DVD) and who are spooked by delays and technical problems that Sony is experiencing. I'm sort of dubious about cramming 30 gigs onto a plastic platter without a protective cartridge myself. I don't think Sony has enough 3-year-olds in their product testing labs.
I'm not sure how well this battle of giants mirrors the battle of pygmies that is the HA standards war, but I suspect that there will be similar defections from Z-Wave whenever someone in some committee does something that a major player takes offense to. It was time for something to supplant X-10 - that much seems to be agreed on. I'm betting on Insteon because they offer a migration path from today's defacto standard, X-10. That's why I am also betting on HD-DVD: their players will play old DVD's as well as HDs. As soon as the two hit the real market Sony will be either forced to add compatibility electronics to play old DVDs or they will crash and burn. If there's anything PCs have taught me it's how important having a "migration path" is to sustaining continuous growth in the industry.
Interestingly enough, the article also mentions how Sony, the inventor of the Walkman, got its lunch eaten in a big way by the Apple I-Pod. Sony used to be one of the great innovators - at one time they would continually release products that were "must have" and that no one else made. Now they've lost their focus and have become a conglomerate with a music company that, IIRC, once paid Michael Jackson $1B. The music division promotes so many internecine rivalaries they've had to bring a knighted Brit on board to straighten things out. They're trying hard to recapture the image of innovation they were once known for with the new BluRay technology, but I think they're going to go hungry again.
And the beat goes on, the beat goes on . . .
-- Bobby G.