What time frame do you mean by "not too distant future"?
Why do you think all telephone service will go over VOIP?
To do so would require every home and business to have broadband service and the capacity isn't out there to accomodate that.
Many areas are offered broadband, but if _everyone_ used it the trunks would be flooded and unusuable; indeed, the cable company has some capacity problems now. Remember, in many places you do not have a private copper pair from your home/business to the central office -- but at some point your line goes into a modern day 'concentrator/ multiplexor' (or maybe even an old style one), and the consolidated trunk only has limited capacity. If everyone were to have broadband, more trunk capacity would be required.
Now the phone companies have been installing more capacity which is how more people can get DSL with better speeds than the past, and they're trying out "FIOS" (see other thread). But a broadband connection, by definition, is "broad" and requires more capacity than a POTS line.
There's also a heck of a lot of old or very old "drop lines" from the telephone pole to the subscriber that might suffice for POTS calls but not for broadband work. Who will pay to upgrade, esp when many subscribers might not want broadband?
I strongly doubt that. Public policy has been completely the opposite -- to provide universal 911 service and upgrade all services to provide the enhanced features (911 originally not that sophisticated.)
[TELECOM Digest Editor's Note: I would think if it ever got that critical (where 'everyone' went with VOIP instead of landline) the VOIP administrators would develop the equivilent of the 'Erlang tables' in an effort to develop the amount of capacity needed to keep up with it. Telcos today, or anytime in the past, would never have been able to keep up if _everyone_ wished to be connected _all_ the time.Telcos place their bets on the fact that at any typical time of day/day of week, _maybe_ one or two percent of their subscribers are actually using the phone. At 'busy hours' _maybe_ eight or ten percent of the subscribers are on the phone, in a residential setting at least, possibly fifteen percent in a business setting. If they develop capactity to deal with their 'busy hour' they generally have it made. Why do you feel VOIP would be any different? I cannot imagine the _ratios_ would be much different than they are now. I understand eight percent of a small handful is still much less than eight percent of a nation-full, but I suspect as they need it, they will 'develop' more capacity in the form of bandwidth. Telco engineers quite familiar with Erlang can tell you, this is Tuesday, 10 AM, therefore there are X persons using the phone and be rather accurate in their statement. I am sure VOIP, as it matures will be the same way. PAT]