Those customers currently on dial-up by choice (as opposed to those who have no decent broadband option) may be hesitant to pay the additional cost to move to broadband. But I don't think it's likely that many broadband customers will drop back to dial-up to cut costs.
Assuming most broadband customers also have cellphones, I think those looking to cut costs might cut off their landlines before they drop their broadband service. And for those who are already landline-free, the cost of a new landline plus dialup service is probably higher than their broadband bill.
***** Moderator's Note *****
There's another option, and it's available, paradoxically, because of the success of wideband offerings: cash-strapped homeowners may also share high-speed connections with their neighbors.
Savvy college studends and urban dwellers have, for years, been enjoying free Internet access by "poaching" WiFi connections from their neighbors. Even ADSL lines in the bottom speed tier have enough bandwidth to serve two or more homes, so many users who find an open WiFi hotspot just hook on and don't bother to get their own lines. In fact, my ISP (Speakeasy, one of the more cluefull outfits) will even give me a discount and bill my neighbors directly if I sign them up to share my ADSL line!
The industry has run a semi-successful campaign to make home users aware of the dangers of open hotspots, encouraging those with wireless LANs to turn on encryption, but it's only a rear-guard action: users with older Access Points that support only "WEP" encryption are just putting up an electronic "No Trespassing" sign by turning WEP on, since the encryption algorithm is ineffective and was cracked years ago, so almost anyone who is "in the business" can get by WEP barriers with little trouble. Even when homeowners with more recent equipment are able to user the more robust "WPA" method, they're usually willing to share costs, so when a neighbor who's out of work approaches them, an offer of ten or twenty dollars a month (in cash) is all it takes to close the deal.
Bill Horne Temporary Moderator
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