NEWS: Verizon and AT&T May Both Get Apple Tablet

Methinks he's correct any way you read it (market share, growth, sales, users, etc). Going to the source:

Note the graph which forcasts more Android users than iOS users after

Given that this is 2010, perhaps you see the problem.

Steve

The graph doesn't apply. It is in use now that is what is under discussion.

Sales trends, growth, etc will come into play over time.

Frankly I suspect that a slew of Android based smartphones in total may end up being more than the total of iPhones in use in the future, but there will be no single version that will even get very close.

And with Android, that is a distinct difference. Each phone has whatever the carrier/producer puts on it. And unless something changes, adding additional apps will remain sluggish on Android for developers.

Perhaps, but I see it as a popularity issue, coupled with the dearth of models. If Nokia or Motorola had a "radical new" antenna design on one of their phones with a similar problem, it'd be one model of dozens. Other than Apple continuing to sell "last year's model" along with the iPhone du jour, the iPhone 4 is THE Apple phone, meaning if the device has an alleged problem, the "entire line" has an alleged problem. If there was an iPhone Classic, iPhone Nano, iPhone Shuffle, etc., I think this would be less of a big deal.

Good point.

No problem. Instead of comparing about 5 major operating systems used in cell phones, we'll just chop it into vendor, operator, or model classifications to insure that nobody can extract a valid comparison from the resultant mess. It's much like comparing Linux users with Windoze, where there are about 7 Windoze mutations, but 300 Linux distributions.

I should hope not. I was seriously worried about Google dominated monopoly, where Google pulls all the strings and all the other vendors receive late or obsolete releases. It's still a potential problem, but fortunately, has not materialized. Do you want everything from one vendor?

I should hope not. The last thing the vendors would want is a standardization of features and performance, where price would be the only possible distinction. Standards, both de facto and de jure, are generally a good thing, but not while the technology obsoletes itself every 2-3 years.

Buyers are often confused by facts, figures, numbers, and numbers. For such buyers, it's best to discuss the "image" that wearing such a cell phone would provide the user. When you bought your latest microprocessor controlled consumer appliance (TV, DVR, microwave oven, hi-fi, etc), was the choice of operating system of any importance or interest?

I don't see the connection. If app sales were higher, it would not necessarily create a better understanding of the OS by the users. For example, ask a typical member of the GUM (great unwashed masses) how many cylinders are in their automobile engine. If they got that right, ask them if it has a carburetor or fuel injection and possibly the displacement. Most will not know. It's not necessary to know what's under the hood in order to drive the vehicle.

However, you might be right about users not understanding that Android is an OS. More likely, they equate Android to being an alternative to Apple products.

Maybe. I suggest you consider brand loyalty. I don't mean Apple iOS versus Android brand loyalty. I mean AT&T versus Verizon. It's been demonstrated that there's little loyalty to AT&T and that a large chunk of iPhone users would move to Verizon if they offered an Verizon iPhone. Keep your eye on the churn rate to see who's has the most loyal customers. You might find these articles enlightening:

That's a valid distinction. However, it's usually lost on the bulk of the buying public, which really doesn't care if the OS is proprietary or open source.

I'm speculating that the cause/effect relationship runs in the _other_ direction. That users aren't buying Android apps in large numbers because many don't understand that a) their phones can actually run apps and this is useful and that b) they'll be able to take their apps with them to other Android phones in the future.

I agree that Verizon availability is another major reason why Android phones as selling well. This does not really appear to be related to the point I was making. I mean, except to the extent that it's another factor undermining attempts by some people to pretend Android is winning because it's better or because consumers value 'software freedom' or something.

I'm not saying they should. I'm discussing the issue of whether Android phones should all be counted in the same pool merely because vendors are drawing on the same OSS codebase.

Just as a large chunk of Verizon users have apparently moved to AT&T to become iPhone users. The net would be anyone's guess.

That wouldn't seem likely, what with: (a) heavy promotion of Android apps (e.g., Verizon ads) (b) similar app experience between Android and iPhone, (c) multitasking in all Androids, and (d) heavier data consumption by Android than by iPhone .

I respectfully disagree. Antennagate just demonstrates that Apple got caught with a poor design that affects the entire population of the latest phone.

It's "unimaginable" because there are so many different makes and models, where any given model defect is confined to a small minority of Android devices (one of the advantages of the open Android model).

Google's own Nexus One received comparable criticism to iPhone 4 even though its problems were less severe.

But this is precisely my point. Having more models doesn't actually mean the phone an individual user buys is less likely to have an issue. It just means consumers less likely to _hear_ about issues. This is actually _worse_ for consumers, yet it makes Android look better.

And I think there's even an additional factor at work. There are a lot of people who _love_ to hate Apple. There are also lots of clueless Apple fans who demand entirely unreasonable things from Apple and get pissed off when they don't get the. (See any Mac web forum on the day of a major Apple announcement.) And the iPhone still has substantially better brand recognition than Android. Put these together with the tendency for sensationalist Internet 'journalism', you have a recipe for a firestorm -- in a way you just don't with Android devices.

Choice is _better_ for consumers, not only because one size doesn't fit all, but also because one bad apple doesn't spoil the whole barrel the way it does with Apple. Android looks better because its model is better.

I think the evidence is strong that there are far more blind Apple loyalists than Apple critics.

That difference fails to account for such a large gap. Actually, I'd see it as evidence that a larger fraction of Android apps are hobbyist projects. Which we'd expect anyway, because the barriers to entry are much lower. You don't need a Mac to write Android apps, and they're written in Java, which is a more widely used language than Obj-C.

In the long run, a platform which actually allows professional developers to make money from their apps is going to get much better apps.

But issues related to specific Android models receive sufficiently little coverage that regular consumers aren't going to hear about them.

There are a lot of Android handsets on the market, and only a handful that are really even in the same class as the iPhone. These are the ones that everyone focuses on in tech newsgroups, but I'd bet it's some combination of the lower-end Android handsets (some of which have been subsidized down to $0 or handed out in 2-for-1 deals at various times) that account for most of the sales.

This will tend to make Android look _worse_ on average, to people who come into contact with it in the real world (friends' phones, etc.).

Even if that's true, a) the blind Apple loyalists also attack Apple (see above) and b) the blind loyalists also visit web sites with negative coverage (half the fun of being a blind loyalist is presumably being able to get nice and outraged occasionally, I'd think), which encourages web sites to stir up this sort of controversy.

Nothing wrong with that -- Android is getting the best of both worlds.

Benefits of the Android model.

Available evidence suggests otherwise; e.g.,

As it should be, since they don't affect most consumers.

Pretty much all Android handsets to date are in the same class as the iPhone. We'll probably see a lot of lower class Android handsets in the future, but not thus far.

That's not been my experience, and would seem to be contradicted by the rapid boom in Android sales.

I think that's a big stretch. ;)

What specific Android models do you think are not in the "same class" as the iPhone, and what is their share of Android sales?