Timely message to all

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I hope everyone is doing ok.

I'm still going out and working on 2 new construction installations that ar
e in progress and doing service calls, but keeping my distance from other w
orkers which are few. I'm arriving on the job at 3 to 4 PM and working into
 the evening till 9 10 PM which pretty much leaves me alone on the job with
 no one else to come in contact with.

Service calls seem less than usual so I have to assume it's because of the  
Virus slowdown. Only did two in the last few days and only have two schedul
ed for next week so far. One of them the people went to their house in the  
woods in Pennsylvania, so their house here will be empty for me to work in.
 The other is someone new to the area moving into one of my old customers c
ondo, so I'm thinking they're kind of skittish about the new area and want  
protection more than being concerned about me coming into their personal sp
ace.  

Most people I've spoken to don't seem that concerned over the situation but
 they're taking normal precautions. Some are working at home. Some are work
ing reduced hours. I went out on two estimates last week but I'm thinking t
hat it will probably be an extended period of time before they get back to  
me. I've got my existing new construction jobs to keep me busy for awhile b
ut I expect a slowdown in the future as a result of people being out of wor
k etc.

I've got some money owed to me but not enough to hamper paying my bills (ye
t)  
this month and probably next month  

So we'll see what happens over the next few weeks.

I'm wondering if any of the small business assistance from the government w
ill be available to me if things get worse to a point that I can't pay my b
ills. I'm only a one man company so I don't know how this is going to work  
and if I'll comply with the requirements.  

How's everyone else doing?

Re: Timely message to all
On 3/22/2020 7:29 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
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Hi Jim,

Being in the state of Pennsylvania the Governor shut me down for  
"construction" but not for "service calls" as of last Thursday at 8pm.

I am doing about the same.  But since "ALL" construction is to
be closed down it makes it difficult to just go and show up.

Maybe some reclassification needs to be done.  One big project
I am at a point that I need a lot of the "others" to get done
so I can continue.  Like the flooring and painting guys.

Pleased be advised that a for the government they consider
"Small Business" to be companies with 50 or more employees.
I don't think that does much help you and me very much.

Then again time will tell.  I am guessing fill out an
application and throw it against the wall and see if it
happens to stick.................. or not.

For me my concerns go more for the customers paying their
annual monitoring fees when due. I hate being the bad guy!

I hope all here pull through these bad times.

Les


Re: Timely message to all
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:18:16 PM UTC-4, ABLE1 wrote:
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t are in progress and doing service calls, but keeping my distance from oth
er workers which are few. I'm arriving on the job at 3 to 4 PM and working  
into the evening till 9 10 PM which pretty much leaves me alone on the job  
with no one else to come in contact with.
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the Virus slowdown. Only did two in the last few days and only have two sch
eduled for next week so far. One of them the people went to their house in  
the woods in Pennsylvania, so their house here will be empty for me to work
 in. The other is someone new to the area moving into one of my old custome
rs condo, so I'm thinking they're kind of skittish about the new area and w
ant protection more than being concerned about me coming into their persona
l space.
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 but they're taking normal precautions. Some are working at home. Some are  
working reduced hours. I went out on two estimates last week but I'm thinki
ng that it will probably be an extended period of time before they get back
 to me. I've got my existing new construction jobs to keep me busy for awhi
le but I expect a slowdown in the future as a result of people being out of
 work etc.
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 (yet)
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nt will be available to me if things get worse to a point that I can't pay  
my bills. I'm only a one man company so I don't know how this is going to w
ork and if I'll comply with the requirements.
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Interesting point you bring up.

I'm told that in NY we are considered an "essential" business but no one ha
s specified whether that applies to new installations or just service calls
.

I'll have to try and find out about that.



Re: Timely message to all
On 3/23/2020 4:38 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
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Yes, it seems that each State Governor is making their own decisions as
to how to handle things.  Governor Wolf today selected certain counties
that ALL residents of that county must stay home.  No exceptions.

I heard that all are on notice if anyone should see a violator, they
need to be reported.

Could this get any worse???  ABSOLUTELY!!  Just wait a couple of days.



Re: Timely message to all
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I'm not sure trying to find out is the answer, if possible we should all
just stop going out for any reason other than food, medical and other
genuinely essential reasons.

A fire alarm perhaps might be considered essential, but security
alarms, CCTV and home entertainment are for the most part not really
essential no matter what loopholes we might find to justify going to work.

I understand the economic devastation this will cause, but its difficult to
spend your hard earned money if you're six foot under, or to spend it with a
guilt free conscience if you unknowingly take the virus home and/or spread
it to your family and customers.

This is going to get incalculably worse in the coming days, weeks and months
no matter what we do and people not adhering to stay at home orders/advice
will only make it worse.

I don't know what other people in this group are doing but I would say to
everyone - just do the right thing, stay home if possible and try to stay
safe

Doug




















Re: Timely message to all
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 6:12:24 PM UTC-4, doug wrote:
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Over the past few days there have been two home invasions in just MY area. People robbed on the street. Suspicious cars roaming the streets recording neighborhoods.  

New York has the highest incidence of the virus. Yet in the far reaches of the state by the Canadian boarder there are none. Population density is a definite factor.

The rules are different for everyone depending where you are located. I have a customer that I will see today. Their fire alarm continuously tripping. They will leave a key for me and have agreed to not be home when I get there.  

My wife is a nurse and we have an ample supply of rubber gloves. I'm putting on rubber gloves when I arrive and will remove them before I get back in the truck and leave them at the site.

Some of us (like you)  have a job. It's nice to be able to stay home from a job. Some of us own companies.  

Re: Timely message to all
On 3/22/2020 4:29 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
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Different industry, but its mixed.  I ordered some raw materials from a  
new vendor over the weekend and they shipped on Monday.  A little more  
expensive than my regular material vendor, but quite a bit faster than  
their 3-5 days to prep and ship orders.  I ordered the exact same order  
from both vendors on Saturday.  The cheaper one hasn't shipped, but  
that's normal for them.  Anyway, its good to know I can still order  
stock as I need it instead of having to stock up more than I usually do.  
  My other main vendors all shipped weekend orders on Monday.  I was  
more worried about supply side until yesterday.  It could of course  
still get worse, but I think saner minds will prevail over the total  
"sky is falling" that the media wants us to believe.

On the sales side I've had from 2 to 6 months backlog of work for a few  
years at any given time.  I try to keep it down to around 2, but when  
you get big orders its hard to turn down the money.  I'm down to just a  
few weeks backlog of work, and part of that is waiting on specialty  
tools for special jobs.  Its a little worrisome, but I can always create  
a new product and generate a few sales if stock and custom work remains  
down.  I've mentioned products I am working on to a couple customers  
that were met with enthusiasm.  If it gets slower it just means more  
time to develop and test prototypes.  New products always generate a few  
sales.

Last week had a positive blip with a lot of small sales on "stock"  
designs.  I figure a lot of guys are stuck at home so they were bored  
and ordered stuff.

Remember that vendor I mentioned that shipped stock right away.  They  
called me this morning to sound me out about doing some of their  
machining work.  They tried to sound up beat by saying about 80% of the  
shops they work with are still going, but that told me that 20% of the  
shops they work with aren't.  I hope their employees have jobs to come  
back to when its all over.

It might get tough, but unless we have actual deaths in the family we  
will be fine.

As of this morning we have seen a death rate of confirmed cases of about  
1.2% in the USA per the CDC.  This is with a virus for which there is no  
vaccine.  Its no worse than a modestly bad contemporary flu year.  I get  
it if its one of yours that is one of that 1.2%, but I don't see any  
reason for the mass hysteria.  That's 1.2% of CONFIRMED cases. Not 1.2%  
of the population.  Far below the CDCs own published threshold for the  
"pandemic" they are pushing.  The damage to the economy already done is  
far worse than anything from COVID-19 so far.  The economic damage could  
get far worse.  We are much closer to a world wide economic tipping  
point than we were after the 05/06 crash.

Anyway I am not overly worried, but of those things i spend some time  
worrying about the economic fallout concerns me far more than this  
strain of Corona Virus.

I hope you all are well and take realistic steps towards the future.

Re: Timely message to all

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The mortality rate of flu is normally about 0.1% of those infected.
The global mortality rate of Covid-19 is somewhere around 3.4% of those  
infected according to WHO
The mortality rate in the US might be a low as 1.2% at the moment, I'll take  
your word for it since I couldn't find a figure from the CDC today. But even  
if the US rate stays at 1.2% that's still 12 times higher than flu
Covid-19 is far more infectious than flu and since its a brand new  
coronavirus there is little or no immunity to it and unlike the flu there is  
no vaccine for it, so left unchecked many more people will be infected than  
in a flu season.
So even if  the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% of infections, which I  
doubt, the sheer number of people infected likely to get infected with  
covid-19 means the mortality rate of the population as a whole will be much  
higher than with a "regular" flu season.

I get it, that the damage to the economy is immense and many small and large  
business's may not make it.

You pay your money, you take your choice.

I'll put my money on the scientists, not the politicians.

I too hope that everyone stays well and that I am wrong in my interpretation  
of the current situation.

Doug  



Re: Timely message to all

On 3/24/2020 6:16 PM, doug wrote:
 >> On 3/22/2020 4:29 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
 >>> I hope everyone is doing ok.
 >>>
 >>> I'm still going out and working on 2 new construction installations  
that
 >>> are in progress and doing service calls, but keeping my distance from
 >>> other workers which are few. I'm arriving on the job at 3 to 4 PM and
 >>> working into the evening till 9 10 PM which pretty much leaves me alone
 >>> on the job with no one else to come in contact with.
 >>>
 >>> Service calls seem less than usual so I have to assume it's because of
 >>> the Virus slowdown. Only did two in the last few days and only have two
 >>> scheduled for next week so far. One of them the people went to their
 >>> house in the woods in Pennsylvania, so their house here will be  
empty for
 >>> me to work in. The other is someone new to the area moving into one  
of my
 >>> old customers condo, so I'm thinking they're kind of skittish about the
 >>> new area and want protection more than being concerned about me coming
 >>> into their personal space.
 >>>
 >>> Most people I've spoken to don't seem that concerned over the situation
 >>> but they're taking normal precautions. Some are working at home.  
Some are
 >>> working reduced hours. I went out on two estimates last week but I'm
 >>> thinking that it will probably be an extended period of time before  
they
 >>> get back to me. I've got my existing new construction jobs to keep me
 >>> busy for awhile but I expect a slowdown in the future as a result of
 >>> people being out of work etc.
 >>>
 >>> I've got some money owed to me but not enough to hamper paying my bills
 >>> (yet)
 >>> this month and probably next month
 >>>
 >>> So we'll see what happens over the next few weeks.
 >>>
 >>> I'm wondering if any of the small business assistance from the  
government
 >>> will be available to me if things get worse to a point that I can't pay
 >>> my bills. I'm only a one man company so I don't know how this is  
going to
 >>> work and if I'll comply with the requirements.
 >>>
 >>> How's everyone else doing?
 >>>
 >>
 >>
 >> Different industry, but its mixed.  I ordered some raw materials from a
 >> new vendor over the weekend and they shipped on Monday.  A little more
 >> expensive than my regular material vendor, but quite a bit faster than
 >> their 3-5 days to prep and ship orders.  I ordered the exact same order
 >> from both vendors on Saturday.  The cheaper one hasn't shipped, but  
that's
 >> normal for them.  Anyway, its good to know I can still order stock as I
 >> need it instead of having to stock up more than I usually do. My other
 >> main vendors all shipped weekend orders on Monday.  I was more worried
 >> about supply side until yesterday.  It could of course still get worse,
 >> but I think saner minds will prevail over the total "sky is falling"  
that
 >> the media wants us to believe.
 >>
 >> On the sales side I've had from 2 to 6 months backlog of work for a few
 >> years at any given time.  I try to keep it down to around 2, but  
when you
 >> get big orders its hard to turn down the money.  I'm down to just a few
 >> weeks backlog of work, and part of that is waiting on specialty  
tools for
 >> special jobs.  Its a little worrisome, but I can always create a new
 >> product and generate a few sales if stock and custom work remains down.
 >> I've mentioned products I am working on to a couple customers that were
 >> met with enthusiasm.  If it gets slower it just means more time to  
develop
 >> and test prototypes.  New products always generate a few sales.
 >>
 >> Last week had a positive blip with a lot of small sales on "stock"
 >> designs.  I figure a lot of guys are stuck at home so they were  
bored and
 >> ordered stuff.
 >>
 >> Remember that vendor I mentioned that shipped stock right away.  They
 >> called me this morning to sound me out about doing some of their  
machining
 >> work.  They tried to sound up beat by saying about 80% of the shops they
 >> work with are still going, but that told me that 20% of the shops they
 >> work with aren't.  I hope their employees have jobs to come back to when
 >> its all over.
 >>
 >> It might get tough, but unless we have actual deaths in the family  
we will
 >> be fine.
 >>
 >> As of this morning we have seen a death rate of confirmed cases of about
 >> 1.2% in the USA per the CDC.  This is with a virus for which there is no
 >> vaccine.  Its no worse than a modestly bad contemporary flu year.  I get
 >> it if its one of yours that is one of that 1.2%, but I don't see any
 >> reason for the mass hysteria.  That's 1.2% of CONFIRMED cases. Not  
1.2% of
 >> the population.  Far below the CDCs own published threshold for the
 >> "pandemic" they are pushing.  The damage to the economy already done is
 >> far worse than anything from COVID-19 so far.  The economic damage could
 >> get far worse.  We are much closer to a world wide economic tipping  
point
 >> than we were after the 05/06 crash.
 >>
 >> Anyway I am not overly worried, but of those things i spend some time
 >> worrying about the economic fallout concerns me far more than this  
strain
 >> of Corona Virus.
 >>
 >> I hope you all are well and take realistic steps towards the future.
 >
 > The mortality rate of flu is normally about 0.1% of those infected.
 > The global mortality rate of Covid-19 is somewhere around 3.4% of those
 > infected according to WHO
 > The mortality rate in the US might be a low as 1.2% at the moment,  
I'll take
 > your word for it since I couldn't find a figure from the CDC today.  
But even
 > if the US rate stays at 1.2% that's still 12 times higher than flu
 > Covid-19 is far more infectious than flu and since its a brand new
 > coronavirus there is little or no immunity to it and unlike the flu  
there is
 > no vaccine for it, so left unchecked many more people will be  
infected than
 > in a flu season.
 > So even if  the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% of infections,  
which I
 > doubt, the sheer number of people infected likely to get infected with
 > covid-19 means the mortality rate of the population as a whole will  
be much
 > higher than with a "regular" flu season.
 >
 > I get it, that the damage to the economy is immense and many small  
and large
 > business's may not make it.
 >
 > You pay your money, you take your choice.
 >
 > I'll put my money on the scientists, not the politicians.
 >
 > I too hope that everyone stays well and that I am wrong in my  
interpretation
 > of the current situation.
 >
 > Doug
 >
 >


611/48800 this morning.  I am sure they changed during the day.  Its the  
politicians and the media creating the frenzy, but its the frenzied who  
will destroy the world.  Not a virus.

You deliberately chose not to hear what I said about flu.  I said a "bad  
flu year" in contemporary times.  Years when they get the vaccine wrong  
and the strains are stronger.  The death toll is much higher than the  
average contemporary year.  I'm not talking about going back 100 years.  
Just in your lifetime.

So, you don't think the suicides, murders, and and deaths from poor  
health care of a collapsed economy that will last not for one year, but  
several, are worth considering.  Ok.  Your choice.  I'll send any  
referrals to Les & Jim.

Underlying a lot of people's attidutes seems to be some misunderstanding  
that working for money so your family survives is somehow wrong.  
Society uses money as an "equitable" currency for exchange of goods and  
services.  Its inherent in society world wide, that those without money  
survive on the charity of others.  In local economies where few have  
money many don't because there isn't much charity to give.  No  
politician can tax me for what I don't have to force me to give it to  
those who choose not to work.

If those who create jobs do not survive (businesses not just the owners)  
then you have a society with little money for everybody, not just the  
business owners.

There is another problem many have not considered.  Civil rights in the  
USA are under attack during this government shutdown.  Once a battle is  
lost its lost.  Rarely is an inch lost ever recovered.

Worse?  What if I am right.  That its self important chest beating and  
political hay making.  A bunch of opportunists using it to their own  
political advantage.  If there is really a hard corp pandemic the death  
toll will be much higher before anybody will believe it.

Or you could be right. #boomerremover. There will be more freed up  
wealth for those who survive.

The sky is falling,
Chicken Little



Re: Timely message to all
On 3/24/2020 9:12 PM, Bob La Londe wrote:
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The thing I've learned over all the years...
"Numbers" can be made to say anything you want them too.....

Gonna step out now and tell the tale from old ages point of view...

"Faith"  will keep you going,  Live or Die,  others will survive..

Give them "Faith"  to keep going, by the way you live...

--  

*Rocky T. Squirrel, esq.*


Re: Timely message to all

On 3/24/2020 10:12 PM, Bob La Londe wrote:
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Thanks Bob, but the travel time is gonna cost the customer a lot!!

Today I am going to go to the site with the Dictograph panel.
First step will be to ID the unlabeled wiring rats nest.
BTW no residents in the house, just the caretaker.

This will be a day to remember.

Hope all have a good safe day as well!!

Les




Re: Timely message to all
On 3/25/2020 5:23 AM, ABLE1 wrote:
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If somebody local will not take care of them it might be worth it.  Used  
to have FBII send me referrals for panel owners in remote locations from  
time to time.  Most were just thrilled to have somebody willing to come  
at all.

I grew up in a less remote area.  Maybe 60 miles from town.  My dad and  
I learned to do all the electrical, plumbing, and refrigeration work we  
needed done for our grocery store (and many other things). We just  
couldn't get service companies to come out at all.  I took my  
refrigeration certification course (mail order) when I was 14 I think.  
In later years as a contractor I had a number of big cooling companies  
as regular clients.  I think they were impressed that I actually knew  
atleast roughly how everything worked.  My dad had a handy man service  
on the side that actually generated more revenue than his hardware  
store.  People were thrilled to get things fixed.  He's a retired  
snowbird now (sunbird?) and he still just about always has handy man  
jobs going.

Ok.  1900 miles might be a bit far for a service call, but I had clients  
from 200-300 miles away.  Some of them actually had service companies  
that were closer, but they couldn't get them to come out and do service  
for them.  I charged them for my travel time, but they were just happy  
to have somebody who knew what they were doing fix their stuff.  One was  
a school.  Whenever I had to go out there I planned a full day of it.  
I'd fix what they called me for, and then ask what else they had that  
was broken to save on another travel charge. My truck looked like the  
moving scene from the Beverly Hillbillies when ever I headed their way,  
so I would be prepared.





Re: Timely message to all
On 3/25/2020 11:21 AM, Bob La Londe wrote:
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Bob, It would seem that your Dad had the work right ethic to figure out
things on his own.  And that work ethic was passed down properly.

My Dad was the same.  He was the top Ford Mechanic at a local dealership
for 28 years before he retired.  He always had the ability to figure out
stuff of other trades.  When he did have someone come into the house to
fix something, he was always looking over the guys shoulder and asking
questions.  Got enough input to not need that service call again.

I learned a lot of his ways, either by direct contact or snarfing it  
while watching others.

Drives me crazy when the wife says she is going to call a plumber
to fix a leaking faucet or other stuff.

As for those long distant customers, I have had a few as well but they
have since closed up shop.  And yes, they were very happy to pay the
travel time.

This is good conversation that brings back some good memories.  :-)

Thanks Bob!!

Les




Re: Timely message to all
On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 10:12:14 PM UTC-4, Bob La Londe wrote:
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The above sounds like a paraphrased excerpt from Ayn Rand's ---- Atlas Shrugged.

Turns out she was more a prophet than a philosopher  

Re: Timely message to all
On 3/25/2020 7:43 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
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Interestingly as an avid Science Fiction reader who has literally read  
thousands of books, (maybe tens of thousands), I have never read Atlas  
Shrugged.

(The pun was just a happy accident.)



Re: Timely message to all
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 12:39:13 PM UTC-4, Bob La Londe wrote:
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I miss Asimov ( Foundation, I Robot and too many others to mention) and Rob
ert Heinlein( Methuselahs Children Do you remember his recurring character  
Lazarus Long? How about Stranger in a Strange Land ?), Arthur Clark ( Child
hoods End the movie was Terrible! ), Ray Bradbury ( Fahrenheit 451), Frank  
Herbert. Dune (Terrible Movie)

Modern SyFi just stopped being interesting to me about 15/20 years ago when
 it shifted to swords and dragons and half animal people. I got tired of  T
he only injection of SyFi I get now is from TV where very rarely is there a
nything of substance for me. I got tired of the never ending Star Wars Blah
 Blah Blah, after the third movie on.  

Atlas Shrugged is a fictionalized narrative of Ayn Rand's Philosophy. At th
e very end it slips into a little bit of Science Fiction but 98% of the boo
k is ( in my opinion) a prediction of exactly what is happening to Capitali
sm today.

I have to say that her books helped me to be more productive and contented  
with my achievements and many other aspects having to do with productivity.

Basically, --It doesn't make any difference what you do (work wise) just be
 the best at it as you can.    

Re: Timely message to all
On 3/26/2020 7:47 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
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Larry Niven has continued to pop out a book or two.  Lots of  
collaborative work.  I have a copy of Goliath Stone (2013) sitting on my  
desk waiting for a day or three to sit back and read.

Orson Scott Card has been fun for those who got into the Ender universe.  
  Children of the Fleet was publish in 2017.  Copy sitting next to the  
copy above.  The Ender universe has been hugely successful financially  
for him, but its not the only thing he wrote.  Wyrms comes to mind.

I liked (and also didn't like) that just about everything Asimov ever  
wrote tied back into the same story line in the end.  My favorite  
character though was Elija Bailey.  The final choice... the only one  
that allows you to change your mind if your wrong.

Heinlien pissed me off.  I like a lot of his work.  Read all of it, but  
when he wrote The Number of The Beast he wet off the deep end.  Then The  
Cat Who Walks Through Walls was back to the Heinlien I enjoyed...until  
it turned not a sequel to Number of The Beast.  Yuck!  I like the  
classic Stranger in a Strange Land, but some of his lesser known work  
were among my favorites.  Farmer in the Sky, Friday, Moon is a Harsh  
Mistress.

Clarke produced a lot of interesting stuff, but some was just tragic  
futility.  Can you honestly say there was any redeeming quality to  
Rendezvous With Rama?

Some I have not seen in a long time, but read all I could back in the  
day included Gordon R Dickson (more space army than sci fi), Pol  
Anderson, Fred Saberhagen...

How about Harry Harrison.  Stainless Steel Rat was classic, but I admit  
the rest of that series was more profiteering off the success of the  
first book.

I can't recall the author off hand but how about Mutineer, Pirate, &  
Statesman.

A few years ago (10+) my wife gave me a subscription to Science Fiction  
Classics and a subscription to Science Fiction Signed First Editions.  I  
was amazed that I had not read about a 1/3 of the classics.  The signed  
first editions was all (mostly) classic science fiction, but modern.  
Some of it was quite good.  Others felt like the author was trying to  
cover their mortgage payment.  I'd say about 50% would have been  
considered good in the classic age of science fiction.  It was worth it  
in my opinion.

Oh, come on.  You don't like a good old magical fairy tale?  How about  
Magic Kingdom for Sale or The Practice Effect.  Then what about Dragon  
Riders of Pern?  Seems like total fantasy... and then it turns into  
science fiction in the end after 20 books or so.  LOL.

Re: Timely message to all
On 3/22/2020 4:29 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it


Finished and shipped several machined parts the last few days.  My jobs  
list is getting shorter, but I am being more efficient.



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